Risk analysis is the systematic study of uncertainties and risks encounter during project execution. Risk analysts seek to identify the risks faced by the client, understand how and when they arise, and estimate the impact (financial or otherwise) of adverse outcomes. Risk managers start with risk analysis and then seek to take actions that will mitigate or hedge these risks.
Pontus International is able to perform a quantitative risk analysis, creating a mathematical model of a project or process that explicitly includes uncertain parameters that we cannot control, and also decision variables or parameters that we can control. A quantitative risk model calculates the impact on project costs, completion dates, cash flow or critical financial key parameters.
Typically we perform Monte Carlo Simulation based of a mathematical model and algorithm called “ Montecarlo”.
Monte Carlo simulation can quickly analyze thousands of ‘what-if’ scenarios, often yielding surprising insights into what can go right, what can go wrong, and what we can do about it.
The process of risk analysis includes identifying and quantifying uncertainties, estimating their impact on outcomes that we care about, building a risk analysis model that expresses these elements in quantitative form, exploring the model through simulation and sensitivity analysis, and making risk management decisions that can help us avoid, mitigate, or otherwise deal with risk.
• Identify and Quantify Uncertainty
• Compute the Impact of Uncertainty
• Complete a Risk Analysis Model
• Explore the Model with Simulation
• Analyze the Model Results
• Make Decisions to Better Manage Risk
The final report will indicate to client the major risk’s area, recommending a set of possible strategies to implement during project execution.